OpenAI seeks new scaling laws as it projects revenue jump from $13 B in 2025
OpenAI seems to be on the hunt for new scaling laws, both for its models and for its bottom line. The company is apparently forecasting revenue to climb from about $13 billion in 2025 to roughly $100 billion by 2028 or 2029. If those numbers pan out, the growth would be almost unheard of in tech.
The math looks clean, but the road ahead feels anything but. OpenAI’s leaders have hinted that the scaling rules that powered earlier breakthroughs no longer cut it; they’re looking for fresh principles that can keep up with the lofty targets. Epoch AI notes that only seven U.S.
firms have ever posted comparable revenue paths over the last fifty years, though the report doesn’t say who they are. That suggests OpenAI is juggling two big tasks: pushing AI performance while building a business engine that can handle a ten-fold jump in just a few years. It’s unclear whether they’ll manage to rewrite the playbook, but the stakes certainly feel high.
If OpenAI actually delivers on its rumored revenue projections, it would set a pace of growth the tech industry has never seen. The company is reportedly forecasting a jump from $13 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028 or 2029. According to Epoch AI, only seven US companies in the past fifty years (that Epoch AI could find) have ever grown from $10 billion to $100 billion in sales within ten years or less—OpenAI's projection would hit that milestone in just about three years. But the leap from $10 billion to $100 billion in just three years would be unprecedented.
OpenAI’s newest roadmap leans heavily on a massive revenue jump - $13 billion in 2025 climbing to somewhere around $100 billion by 2028 or 2029. That leap dwarfs anything we’ve seen before. Epoch AI points out that only seven U.S.
companies in the last fifty years have ever grown from $10 billion to $100 billion in ten years; OpenAI is trying to squeeze that into three. If the numbers hold, the whole sector’s growth expectations would have to be rewritten. Still, the path isn’t mapped out.
How new scaling rules for models will turn into steady cash flow is anyone’s guess, and it’s unclear whether demand can keep up with the forecast. The report doesn’t spell out the assumptions, so analysts are left wondering if the goal is realistic or just hopeful. It probably needs breakthroughs in both tech and adoption to hit those targets.
I’m skeptical, and the next few quarters should show whether this ambition is doable or just talk.
Further Reading
- OpenAI needs new scaling laws for both its AI models and its revenue - The Decoder
- OpenAI Crosses $12 Billion ARR: The 3-Year Sprint That Redefined What's Possible in Scaling Software - SaaStr
- AI: Cranking up OpenAI's Financial Plans. RTZ #837 - Michael Parekh (Substack)
- OpenAI revenue, valuation & growth rate - Sacra - Sacra
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Common Questions Answered
What are the specific revenue projections for OpenAI from 2025 to 2028 or 2029?
OpenAI is reportedly projecting a dramatic revenue surge from $13 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028 or 2029. This growth rate is unprecedented and would compress a milestone that typically takes a decade into just three years.
Why is OpenAI's search for new scaling laws considered critical to its future growth?
OpenAI's leadership states that the existing scaling frameworks that guided earlier breakthroughs are no longer sufficient for achieving their ambitious revenue targets. They need fresh principles to navigate the uncharted path to such massive scale, which is essential for their projected growth.
How does OpenAI's projected growth compare to historical precedents according to Epoch AI?
Epoch AI notes that only seven U.S. companies in the past fifty years have grown from $10 billion to $100 billion in sales within ten years or less. OpenAI's projection to achieve this in roughly three years would set an unprecedented pace in the tech industry.
What is the significance of the $100 billion revenue milestone for OpenAI and the tech sector?
Achieving $100 billion in revenue by 2028 or 2029 would represent a growth rate the tech industry has never seen before. If the forecast holds, it would rewrite growth expectations for the entire sector, establishing a new benchmark for rapid scaling.