OpenAI predicts modest AI finds by 2026, breakthroughs by 2028 as costs fall
When OpenAI walked us through its latest briefing, I got the feeling that the speed of AI advances could soon outpace the little chores we already hand off to bots. The tech itself looks impressive, yet the company’s own wording hints we’re still stuck in a “routine work” stage, most users don’t really notice the shift yet. OpenAI points to a steep drop in operating costs, bragging about a roughly 40-fold yearly fall in what they call the “price per intelligence unit.” If that trend keeps up, the line between cheap, incremental help and truly novel, research-grade output might blur faster than many anticipate.
Their new partnership seems to set a loose timeline: a handful of modest findings in the near term, then more noticeable breakthroughs a few years out. What’s interesting is that OpenAI ties those milestones to cost dynamics rather than just raw performance. The quote below lays out exactly how the firm sees those dates and the economics driving them.
OpenAI anticipates modest AI-driven discoveries by 2026, with more significant breakthroughs expected by 2028. A major factor, according to OpenAI, is the rapid decrease in computing costs. The company reports a 40-fold annual drop in the "price per intelligence unit." If this trend continues, tasks that once required weeks of human effort could soon be automated.
"We expect to have systems that can do tasks that take a person days or weeks soon; we do not know how to think about systems that can do tasks that would take a person centuries." OpenAI OpenAI concedes its own models are still "spikey"--sometimes impressive, but not yet reliable--and face "serious weaknesses." At the same time, the company notes that current systems "outperform the smartest humans" in certain domains. The blog post appears as concerns mount about a possible AI investment bubble, with companies taking on significant debt to build out infrastructure in hopes that today's promises will eventually be realized. On safety, OpenAI calls for stronger public oversight, ongoing impact monitoring, and the development of a global "AI resilience ecosystem" modeled on cybersecurity to address the risks from more powerful models.
OpenAI’s blog notes that most folks still think of AI as chatbots or a smarter search box, even though the models underneath are moving faster than most users can see. The post points to recent math- and coding-olympiad scores as proof that today’s systems can tackle problems that used to take hours of expert work. OpenAI then guesses we’ll see modest AI-driven discoveries around 2026 and something bigger by 2028.
A big part of that, they say, is a sharp drop in computing costs - their own numbers claim a 40-fold yearly fall in the “price per intelligence unit.” If that trend keeps up, tasks that feel out of reach now might become routine. The article, however, doesn’t say which fields will see the first gains, and it’s unclear whether the cost curve will stay that steep. The timeline is specific but feels tentative; they don’t spell out how they’ll judge “modest” versus “significant” breakthroughs.
So, while the cost argument looks promising, the real impact on everyday work remains uncertain.
Further Reading
- OpenAI Sets 2028 Goal for Autonomous AI Researcher - TechBuzz
- OpenAI roadmap revealed: AI research interns by 2026, full-blown AGI researchers by 2028 - TechRadar
- Sam Altman says OpenAI will have a 'legitimate AI researcher' by 2028 - TechCrunch
- The road to artificial general intelligence report by MIT - AIMultiple
Related Reading
Browse all OpenAI news →
LLMs & Generative AI OpenAI says AI saves knowledge workers 40‑80 minutes; use yields five‑fold gains
LLMs & Generative AI Grok Chat: AI for debugging, building, testing web apps with voice and images
LLMs & Generative AI Samsung adds Vision AI Companion, an AI Bixby, to TVs for real‑time queries
Related Topic Developers say Sora, unlike Vine/TikTok, is not about people in social media
Research & Benchmarks
Related Topic Jony Ive and Sam Altman unveil AI hardware prototype; OpenAI plans launch under two years
Business & Startups
Common Questions Answered
What timeline does OpenAI give for modest AI‑driven discoveries and larger breakthroughs?
OpenAI forecasts modest AI‑driven discoveries by 2026 and expects more substantial breakthroughs to emerge around 2028. The company bases these projections on the accelerating pace of model improvements and falling compute costs.
How does OpenAI describe the change in "price per intelligence unit" and its impact on AI progress?
OpenAI reports a 40‑fold annual decline in the "price per intelligence unit," meaning each unit of computational intelligence is becoming dramatically cheaper each year. This steep cost reduction is expected to enable automation of tasks that currently take days or weeks of human effort.
What evidence does OpenAI cite to show current models can handle tasks previously requiring expert effort?
The briefing points to recent math‑ and coding‑olympiad results where today's models solved problems that once demanded hours of expert work. These achievements illustrate that even in the "routine work" phase, AI systems are already surpassing human speed on specialized tasks.
According to the article, how do most users still perceive AI despite advances in underlying models?
OpenAI notes that most people continue to picture AI primarily as chatbots or smarter search tools, even though the underlying models are advancing faster than users notice. This perception gap highlights the contrast between visible applications and behind‑the‑scenes capability growth.