Editorial illustration for HSBC Predicts ChatGPT Will Hit 3 Billion Users by 2030, Revenues Still Uncertain
OpenAI Projects 220M Paid Users by 2030 Despite Losses
OpenAI to have 220 M paying users and 3 B users by 2030, still unprofitable
By 2030, OpenAI is projected to command a staggering 3 billion weekly users, with 220 million of them paying for access. That’s a user base larger than the population of any country on Earth. Yet, according to HSBC’s analysis, the company behind ChatGPT will remain stubbornly unprofitable.
The numbers are dizzying: a required $207 billion in computing capacity to sustain growth, and quarterly losses so deep that Microsoft, its 27% owner, saw net income slashed by $3.1 billion in a single quarter. Implied total losses for OpenAI: roughly $11.5 billion every three months. This is the paradox of scale without sustainability.
Along these lines, a recent update from HSBC's US service team, as reported by The Financial Times, projected that ChatGPT will reach 3 billion weekly users by 2030. And it also estimates that by this year, 10% of these users will be paying customers, totalling 300 million, higher than the number OpenAI projected. However, HSBC also states that the company will not be profitable by 2030 and will need at least $207 billion in computing capacity to ensure its growth.
Given Microsoft's 27% stake in OpenAI, its quarterly filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed how much it loses on its investment. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Microsoft's net income was reduced by $3.1 billion due to losses recognised on its OpenAI investment.
Microsoft has committed $13 billion to OpenAI and has already paid $11.6 billion. The investment is treated as an equity stake, and Microsoft records its share of OpenAI's profits or losses under "other income (expense), net." Based on Microsoft's filings, The Register noted that if Microsoft holds a 27% stake in OpenAI and reported a $3.1 billion loss from that investment in a single quarter, this would imply that OpenAI's total loss for the quarter would be roughly $11.5 billion.
The numbers are staggering: 3 billion weekly users, 220 million paying customers, a $207 billion compute bill. Yet profit remains a ghost, not even haunting the horizon. OpenAI is building the world’s most popular product while bleeding $11.5 billion a quarter.
That is not a contradiction, it is a strategy. Massive user acquisition at any cost, then figure out the math later. Microsoft, already $11.6 billion deep, absorbs $3.1 billion in quarterly losses from its 27% stake.
The burden is real. The bet is bigger. By 2030, OpenAI will be ubiquitous but unprofitable, a monument to the era where growth itself is the only metric that matters.
The question is not *if* the numbers add up, but *when* the market decides they have to.
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Common Questions Answered
How many weekly users does HSBC predict ChatGPT will have by 2030?
HSBC forecasts that ChatGPT will reach 3 billion weekly users by 2030. This projection represents a massive potential global reach for the AI language model.
What percentage of ChatGPT users does HSBC expect to be paying customers by 2030?
According to HSBC's forecast, 10% of ChatGPT users will be paying customers by 2030, which translates to approximately 300 million paying users. This projection is higher than OpenAI's own initial estimates.
What computing infrastructure investment does HSBC estimate is needed for ChatGPT's growth?
HSBC estimates that ChatGPT will require at least $207 billion in computing capacity to support its projected growth by 2030. Despite this massive investment, the bank also predicts that the company will not be profitable by that time.
