OpenAI to have 220 M paying users and 3 B users by 2030, still unprofitable
OpenAI’s growth trajectory is drawing more scrutiny than ever. The flagship chatbot keeps popping up in the news, but investors keep wondering if all that buzz will actually turn into profit. The company talks about a huge user base, yet its books still show a loss, so analysts are digging into the numbers behind the hype.
A recent banking analysis - the one quoted by a major financial newspaper - tries to put a number on future demand. It looks past today’s subscriptions and projects weekly engagement that might break the billions-mark by the end of the decade. The same report also breaks down the paying segment, saying a single-digit percentage could already mean hundreds of millions of customers.
If those estimates hold up, they would exceed OpenAI’s own internal forecasts and spark fresh doubts about how sustainable the business model really is. I’m not sure we’ll see the full picture any time soon, but the gap between hype and hard data is getting harder to ignore.
Along these lines, a recent update from HSBC's US service team, as reported by The Financial Times, projected that ChatGPT will reach 3 billion weekly users by 2030. And it also estimates that by this year, 10% of these users will be paying customers, totalling 300 million, higher than the number OpenAI projected. However, HSBC also states that the company will not be profitable by 2030 and will need at least $207 billion in computing capacity to ensure its growth.
Given Microsoft's 27% stake in OpenAI, its quarterly filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed how much it loses on its investment. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Microsoft's net income was reduced by $3.1 billion due to losses recognised on its OpenAI investment.
Microsoft has committed $13 billion to OpenAI and has already paid $11.6 billion. The investment is treated as an equity stake, and Microsoft records its share of OpenAI's profits or losses under "other income (expense), net." Based on Microsoft's filings, The Register noted that if Microsoft holds a 27% stake in OpenAI and reported a $3.1 billion loss from that investment in a single quarter, this would imply that OpenAI's total loss for the quarter would be roughly $11.5 billion.
So what do the numbers actually mean? By 2030, some analysts expect OpenAI to have at least 220 million paying subscribers, yet the firm still looks set to run at a loss. Today ChatGPT pulls in about 800 million weekly active users, with roughly 35 million on the $20-per-month Plus or $200-per-month plans as of July.
Reuters reports that annual revenue could reach $20 billion by year-end, but nobody has confirmed profitability. HSBC’s US team, quoted by the Financial Times, projects 3 billion weekly users by 2030 and a 10 percent conversion rate - that would be 300 million paying customers, a figure that tops the 220 million estimate elsewhere. The spread between these forecasts hints at different assumptions.
And the idea that the company stays unprofitable despite multi-billion-dollar revenue suggests cost or investment levels we don’t see. It’s unclear whether the projected user base will turn into sustainable margins, or if the financial picture will shift as the service scales. The data are there; the bigger story is still up in the air.
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Common Questions Answered
What user growth does HSBC project for ChatGPT by 2030?
HSBC's US service team estimates that ChatGPT will reach 3 billion weekly users by 2030. This projection includes the expectation that 10 % of those users, or about 300 million, will be paying customers.
How many paying subscribers does the article say OpenAI expects to have by 2030, and how does that compare to HSBC's estimate?
The article states that OpenAI forecasts at least 220 million paying subscribers by 2030. HSBC's estimate is higher, projecting 300 million paying users based on a 10 % conversion of its 3 billion weekly user base.
According to the article, will OpenAI be profitable by 2030, and what financial hurdle is highlighted?
Both the article and HSBC's analysis indicate that OpenAI is not expected to be profitable by 2030. HSBC highlights that the company would need at least $207 billion in computing capacity to sustain its projected growth, a massive capital requirement that challenges profitability.
What are the current (as of July) weekly active user and paying subscriber numbers for ChatGPT?
As of July, ChatGPT has about 800 million weekly active users, with roughly 35 million of those users paying for the $20‑per‑month Plus plan or the $200‑per‑month enterprise options. These figures illustrate the gap between current paying users and the massive future user base projected.