Editorial illustration for HSBC Predicts ChatGPT Will Hit 3 Billion Users by 2030, Revenues Still Uncertain
OpenAI Projects 220M Paid Users by 2030 Despite Losses
OpenAI to have 220 M paying users and 3 B users by 2030, still unprofitable
Artificial intelligence's meteoric rise continues to shock even seasoned industry analysts. ChatGPT, OpenAI's notable language model, has become a global phenomenon that's reshaping how we interact with technology.
Now, a new financial forecast from HSBC is turning heads in Silicon Valley. The investment bank's projections suggest ChatGPT isn't just another tech trend, it's potentially a major platform with massive global reach.
Wall Street rarely makes bold predictions about emerging tech. But HSBC's latest analysis, reported in The Financial Times, suggests something remarkable is happening with generative AI.
The bank isn't just talking about incremental growth. Its forecast points to an explosive expansion of ChatGPT's user base, with implications that could ripple through multiple industries.
But here's the twist: while user numbers are expected to skyrocket, the path to profitability remains uncertain. Can OpenAI convert massive user interest into sustainable revenue?
Along these lines, a recent update from HSBC's US service team, as reported by The Financial Times, projected that ChatGPT will reach 3 billion weekly users by 2030. And it also estimates that by this year, 10% of these users will be paying customers, totalling 300 million, higher than the number OpenAI projected. However, HSBC also states that the company will not be profitable by 2030 and will need at least $207 billion in computing capacity to ensure its growth.
Given Microsoft's 27% stake in OpenAI, its quarterly filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed how much it loses on its investment. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Microsoft's net income was reduced by $3.1 billion due to losses recognised on its OpenAI investment.
Microsoft has committed $13 billion to OpenAI and has already paid $11.6 billion. The investment is treated as an equity stake, and Microsoft records its share of OpenAI's profits or losses under "other income (expense), net." Based on Microsoft's filings, The Register noted that if Microsoft holds a 27% stake in OpenAI and reported a $3.1 billion loss from that investment in a single quarter, this would imply that OpenAI's total loss for the quarter would be roughly $11.5 billion.
ChatGPT's explosive growth seems inevitable, but profitability remains a massive question mark. HSBC's bold projection of 3 billion users by 2030 suggests massive potential, yet the financial realities are complex.
The bank estimates 300 million paying customers - a significant leap from current user bases. But the computing infrastructure required is staggering, with an anticipated $207 billion needed just to support expansion.
Microsoft's 27% stake hints at serious corporate backing. Still, OpenAI's path to profitability looks uncertain. The sheer scale of projected user adoption is remarkable: from today's millions to potentially billions in just seven years.
Technological enthusiasm must be balanced with financial pragmatism. While user growth appears almost guaranteed, the economic model remains unclear. HSBC's analysis suggests ChatGPT will be a global phenomenon, but not necessarily a immediately profitable one.
The AI landscape continues to evolve rapidly. What seems certain is that generative AI tools like ChatGPT are becoming mainstream - whether they'll be financially sustainable is another matter entirely.
Further Reading
- OpenAI's countdown on ads as Google competition grows - Digiday
- OpenAI in 2026: Reaching Divinity or Facing Bankruptcy - 36Kr
- OpenAI - Company Analysis and Outlook Report (2026) - Deep Research Global
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Common Questions Answered
How many weekly users does HSBC predict ChatGPT will have by 2030?
HSBC forecasts that ChatGPT will reach 3 billion weekly users by 2030. This projection represents a massive potential global reach for the AI language model.
What percentage of ChatGPT users does HSBC expect to be paying customers by 2030?
According to HSBC's forecast, 10% of ChatGPT users will be paying customers by 2030, which translates to approximately 300 million paying users. This projection is higher than OpenAI's own initial estimates.
What computing infrastructure investment does HSBC estimate is needed for ChatGPT's growth?
HSBC estimates that ChatGPT will require at least $207 billion in computing capacity to support its projected growth by 2030. Despite this massive investment, the bank also predicts that the company will not be profitable by that time.