OpenAI to have 220 M paying users and 3 B users by 2030, still unprofitable
OpenAI’s growth trajectory is drawing more scrutiny than ever. While the company’s flagship chatbot continues to dominate headlines, investors are still asking whether scale will translate into profit. The firm has hinted at a massive user base, yet its financials remain in the red, prompting analysts to dig into the numbers behind the hype.
A recent banking analysis, cited by a leading financial newspaper, attempts to quantify that future demand. It looks beyond current subscriptions, projecting weekly engagement that could eclipse the billions‑mark by the end of the decade. The same source also breaks down the paying segment, suggesting a single‑digit percentage could already represent hundreds of millions of customers.
Those figures, if accurate, would outpace OpenAI’s own internal estimates and raise fresh questions about the sustainability of its business model.
Along these lines, a recent update from HSBC's US service team, as reported by The Financial Times, projected that ChatGPT will reach 3 billion weekly users by 2030. And it also estimates that by this year, 10% of these users will be paying customers, totalling 300 million, higher than the number OpenAI projected. However, HSBC also states that the company will not be profitable by 2030 and will need at least $207 billion in computing capacity to ensure its growth.
Given Microsoft's 27% stake in OpenAI, its quarterly filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed how much it loses on its investment. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Microsoft's net income was reduced by $3.1 billion due to losses recognised on its OpenAI investment.
Microsoft has committed $13 billion to OpenAI and has already paid $11.6 billion. The investment is treated as an equity stake, and Microsoft records its share of OpenAI's profits or losses under "other income (expense), net." Based on Microsoft's filings, The Register noted that if Microsoft holds a 27% stake in OpenAI and reported a $3.1 billion loss from that investment in a single quarter, this would imply that OpenAI's total loss for the quarter would be roughly $11.5 billion.
What do the projections really tell us? By 2030, OpenAI is said to host at least 220 million paying subscribers, yet the company is still expected to run at a loss. Currently, ChatGPT draws 800 million weekly active users, with 35 million paying for the $20‑per‑month Plus or $200‑per‑month plans as of July.
Reuters notes annual revenue could hit $20 billion by year‑end, but profitability remains unconfirmed. HSBC’s US team, cited by the Financial Times, foresees 3 billion weekly users by 2030 and a 10 percent conversion rate, which would imply 300 million paying customers—higher than the 220 million figure cited elsewhere. The gap between these estimates raises questions about the assumptions underlying each forecast.
Moreover, the claim of continued unprofitability despite multi‑billion‑dollar revenue suggests cost structures or investment levels that are not fully disclosed. Unclear whether the anticipated user base will translate into sustainable margins, or if the financial picture will shift as the service scales. The data points are clear; the broader implications remain uncertain.
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Common Questions Answered
What user growth does HSBC project for ChatGPT by 2030?
HSBC's US service team estimates that ChatGPT will reach 3 billion weekly users by 2030. This projection includes the expectation that 10 % of those users, or about 300 million, will be paying customers.
How many paying subscribers does the article say OpenAI expects to have by 2030, and how does that compare to HSBC's estimate?
The article states that OpenAI forecasts at least 220 million paying subscribers by 2030. HSBC's estimate is higher, projecting 300 million paying users based on a 10 % conversion of its 3 billion weekly user base.
According to the article, will OpenAI be profitable by 2030, and what financial hurdle is highlighted?
Both the article and HSBC's analysis indicate that OpenAI is not expected to be profitable by 2030. HSBC highlights that the company would need at least $207 billion in computing capacity to sustain its projected growth, a massive capital requirement that challenges profitability.
What are the current (as of July) weekly active user and paying subscriber numbers for ChatGPT?
As of July, ChatGPT has about 800 million weekly active users, with roughly 35 million of those users paying for the $20‑per‑month Plus plan or the $200‑per‑month enterprise options. These figures illustrate the gap between current paying users and the massive future user base projected.