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Diagram illustrating speculative decoding: a draft model guesses LLM output, verified by a larger model. [mosthumble.github.i

Editorial illustration for Speculative decoding trains a drafter to guess and verify LLM outputs

AI Drafters Speed Up Language Model Predictions Fast

Speculative decoding trains a drafter to guess and verify LLM outputs

2 min read

Training ever‑larger language models is costly, and researchers keep hunting for ways to squeeze more mileage out of each compute cycle. One recent proposal swaps the traditional single‑model pipeline for a split‑screen strategy: a lightweight “drafter” runs ahead, proposing possible continuations, while the heavyweight model acts as a gatekeeper, confirming which suggestions are worth keeping. By offloading the bulk of token generation to the smaller network, the system can keep the big model focused on validation rather than brute‑force sampling.

The promise is a tighter feedback loop that could trim the number of expensive forward passes required for each training step. If the verifier can assess many proposals in one go, the overall training budget drops dramatically. That’s the core idea behind speculative decoding, and it explains why the method has drawn attention as a potential efficiency boost.

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Speculative decoding involves training a smaller model called a drafter to rapidly guess the future outputs of the larger model. The larger model verifies the drafter's guesses, and the responses it accepts are used for training. Because the larger model can verify all the drafter's guesses at once,

Speculative decoding involves training a smaller model called a drafter to rapidly guess the future outputs of the larger model. The larger model verifies the drafter's guesses, and the responses it accepts are used for training. Because the larger model can verify all the drafter's guesses at once, rather than generating each output sequentially, it accelerates the process.

An adaptive solution But in speculative decoding, the drafter model is typically trained only once and remains static. This makes the technique infeasible for reinforcement learning, since the reasoning model is updated thousands of times during training.

Speculative decoding offers a fresh angle on LLM training, but its practical impact remains unclear. By teaching a tiny drafter to predict the larger model’s next tokens, the system hopes to keep more processors busy while the big model checks the guesses in bulk. The approach could shave wasted cycles when only a few high‑power chips are active on complex queries, but it doesn’t guarantee energy savings.

Yet the article provides no data on how much time or energy is actually saved. If the larger model must still verify every draft output, the overhead might offset the gains. Moreover, the quality of the drafter’s guesses and their effect on final model performance are not quantified.

The method’s promise hinges on the larger model’s ability to accept many guesses at once without degrading accuracy. Until empirical results are shared, the efficiency claim stays speculative. Efficiency is unproven.

In short, the technique is intriguing, but its real‑world benefits are still uncertain.

Further Reading

Common Questions Answered

How does speculative decoding improve large language model inference speed?

Speculative decoding uses a smaller draft model to generate potential tokens quickly, which are then verified in parallel by the target large language model. [arxiv.org](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.01528) research indicates this approach can provide significant performance gains, with some experiments showing up to 111% higher throughput compared to traditional decoding methods.

What factors impact the effectiveness of speculative decoding?

The performance of speculative decoding depends heavily on the latency of the draft model, not necessarily its language modeling capabilities. [arxiv.org](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.01528) researchers found that the draft model's size can be 10-20 times smaller than the target model, with the optimal number of draft tokens typically ranging between 3-5 tokens.

What are the key challenges in implementing speculative decoding?

Researchers must carefully balance the draft model's size and the number of speculative tokens to achieve optimal performance. [aclanthology.org](https://aclanthology.org/anthology-files/pdf/lrec/2024.lrec-main.725.pdf) studies suggest there are theoretical limits to how speculative the decoding can be, with turning points that prevent infinite optimization of the draft model and token generation.